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December 13, 2005

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Colin K

Jeff,

Lot of good stuff in there. But wouldn't you say pro sports is full of great lessons specifically for recruiting in business? Do you want to make a lot of money or win a championship? New York or LA? How would you like to have your day-to-day work all over the front page of newspapers ;)

A Cal economist did a provocative paper a few years ago about going for points on the 4th down:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1453717.html

Cliff's Notes: Professer says coaches should go for points more, coaches say 'There's too many intagibles' to apply the cold logic of mathematics.

It's the exact same thing you hear when you introduce statistically-based management techniques to any business process, be it writing code, manufacturing, or legal briefs.

But yes, in the end there is nothing the world needs less than another sports analogy...

Heather

I think the football analogies are good for simplistic, tactical lessons (how to score), but don't apply to customer behavior. So, now i have to bring up that I am a Trojan; that has everything to do with an emotional tie to my university versus the fact that we are the "market leader" in division 1A. I'm a guaranteed customer based on an emotional connection, so it's not really a market. Having been a Trojan during the bad years didn't make me buy UCLA. I was still a Trojan.

I guess maybe we can take the simple lessons (4th down and long, you have to decide whether to take a chance or punt, for example), but not assume it's representative of the market. I think that part of the benefit of the sports analogy is that the emotional reaction is transferred to the business issue. You just have to be selective about where you use it.

Jeremy Langhans

i dont know anything about sports, but i do know that there are 5 important lessons here:

1. its all about who you know + what you know
2. more importantly its about how you apply those things
3. usc rules. (sorry, i live in the OC)
4. jeff is a smart guy. (blatent kiss up to the guy cuz he deserves it)
5. life has a funny way of doing extraordinary things with plain ole' ordinary peeps (like me)

fun times,
Jer

Lance Knobel

The economist Steve Levitt has pointed out the very selective use of statistics Lewis uses to make his case: http://www.freakonomics.com/blog/2005/12/04/colelge-footballs-billy-beane/.

Levitt has also been a persistent critic of the Moneyball thesis of baseball.

Jeff Hunter

Thank you all for your comment. I appreciate it. I especially wanted to comment on Lance's comments.

I was not a fan of Levitt’s book in that I thought it mashed weighty topics (“Does Abortion Lower the Crime Rate?”) with statistical flights of fancy (“Are Naming Conventions Dependent on Race and Socioeconomic Status?”). I am of the same mind as the New York Times book review – Freakonomics is an important book that deserves the notice it gets, but not because of the way it was written, or even the topics it covered.

What I take away from the comments that Levitt has had over the last year is that Lewis’ analysis is not rigorous enough to merit the almost sycophantic devotion people show to the solutions that he writes about. I would agree with that. Business people are usually sorely lacking in the simple understanding of what Gibson said: “The future is already here – it is just unevenly distributed.” There are few innovations that are new by the time they are noticed by a larger audience.

However, I thought both of Lewis’s pieces (Moneyball and the aforementioned article) are critical reinforcements of the idea that orthodoxy is a poor excuse for lack of performance. Since I write a lot about topics in the Human Resources world, I am especially attached to this idea, as most of the failure of HR can be attributed to a slavish devotion to a cost / risk reduction orthodoxy.

Again, I really appreciate your comment. Thanks for writing.

Lance Knobel

I had equivocal feelings about Freakonomics. I found it a rather thin book that talked down to the audience and, certainly in the case of the naming discussion, was heavily padded to make the work book length. Levitt's work in economics journals – without the "friendly" filter of his co-author – is far better.

I think the reason he comments on Lewis is that he is completely in agreement with the notion that, as you put it, "orthodoxy is a poor excuse". What has made Levitt's work interesting to an audience of non-economists is his own strong challenges to orthodoxy.

The mere act of challenge, however, is not significant. It needs to be backed up with rigor and thought. There are too many business fads that are just fads because they seemed an attractive, seductive idea, but the substance was lacking.

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